Introduction to Elliott Wave Analysis
Elliott Wave analysis is a method of technical analysis that looks for recurrent long-term price patterns related to persistent changes in investor sentiment and psychology. The theory was developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, based on his belief that, because we can identify repetitive patterns in nature, similar patterns should be identifiable in human activities, including stock market price movements.
Understanding the Elliott Wave Principle
The Elliott Wave Principle posits that collective investor psychology, or crowd psychology, moves between optimism and pessimism in natural sequences. These mood swings create patterns evidenced in the price movements of markets at every degree of trend or time scale.
Elliott’s model predicts that market prices will unfold in specific patterns, or “waves,” that are identifiable in market price data. He identified a basic pattern of a five-wave advance followed by a three-wave decline.
The Five-Wave Trend
The five-wave trend is key to the Elliott Wave principle. The waves are numbered 1-5 in the direction of the primary trend. Waves 1, 3, and 5 are “motive” waves that move in the direction of the trend. Waves 2 and 4 are “corrective” waves that move against the trend.
The Three-Wave Correction
After the five-wave trend, a three-wave correction usually follows. These waves are labeled as A, B, and C. Wave A and C move in the direction of the correction, while wave B moves against it.
Applying Elliott Wave Analysis
Elliott Wave analysis can seem complex, but its basic tenets can be applied more simply. Here’s how:
Identifying the Wave Pattern
The first step in Elliott Wave analysis is identifying patterns in market prices. At their core, wave patterns are simple; they are made up of impulse waves and corrective waves.
Applying Fibonacci Ratios
Elliott discovered that wave patterns relate to one another in terms of Fibonacci ratios. This mathematical relationship can help traders identify the completion of wave patterns and anticipate the commencement of new ones.
Combining with Other Forms of Technical Analysis
While Elliott Wave analysis can be used on its own, it can also be used in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis. For instance, traders often use Elliott Wave analysis with other indicators like moving averages or oscillators to confirm wave predictions.
Conclusion
Elliott Wave analysis is a unique form of technical analysis that can provide traders with more information about market trends and potential reversals. While it can be complex, understanding its basic principles can significantly enhance your trading strategy. Like any other form of analysis, it should be used in conjunction with other indicators and strategies to increase its effectiveness.