Introduction to Fibonacci Retracement
Fibonacci retracement is a popular tool used by technical traders and is based on certain key numbers identified by mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci in the 13th century. However, Fibonacci’s sequence of numbers is not as important as the mathematical relationships, expressed as ratios, between the numbers in the series. In technical analysis, these ratios are used to identify potential reversal points in the price charts of various assets.
Understanding Fibonacci Retracement
Fibonacci retracement levels are horizontal lines that indicate where support and resistance are likely to occur. They are calculated by first finding the high and low of the chart. Then five lines are drawn: the first at 100% (the high on the chart), the second at 61.8%, the third at 50%, the fourth at 38.2%, and the last one at 0% (the low on the chart). These percentages are the Fibonacci retracement levels.
Key Fibonacci Retracement Levels
The key Fibonacci retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. However, the 50% retracement level is not a Fibonacci number; it is derived from Dow Theory’s assertion that averages often retrace half their prior move.
Applications of Fibonacci Retracement
Fibonacci retracement is a very versatile tool in trading, and it can be used in various ways:
Identifying Strategic Positions to Place Orders
Traders can use Fibonacci retracement levels to determine where to place orders for market entry. For instance, if a trader notices a pattern of a stock price pulling back to the 61.8% retracement level before bouncing back, they may decide to place their order around this level during the next pullback.
Setting Stop-Loss Orders
Fibonacci retracement can also be used to determine strategic places for stop-loss orders. A trader may decide to set their stop-loss order just below a significant Fibonacci level, believing that the price will rebound before reaching this point.
Targeting Price Levels
Fibonacci retracement levels can also be used to predict future price movements. If a price breaks through a retracement level, the next Fibonacci level up may serve as a target for a long position, or the next level down may serve as a target for a short position.
Conclusion
While Fibonacci retracement levels can be a helpful tool in predicting future price movements, they are by no means foolproof. They should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and indicators to increase their effectiveness. As with any trading strategy, it’s important to manage risk and use appropriate stop-loss orders.